gwern comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: taw 04 January 2011 04:05:55PM *  3 points [-]

Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%, and I'd willing to put actual money behind this if it wasn't for high transaction costs of such a long term bet.

EDIT: Recent events in Fukushima power plant make me slightly more certain about my prediction. Magnitude of the effect will depend on severity of the failure, but it will undoubtedly make safe renewables like wind look more attractive than nuclear power, decreasing chances of the supposed "nuclear renaissance".

Comment author: gwern 10 January 2011 11:14:32PM 3 points [-]
Comment author: taw 11 January 2011 12:00:54AM 2 points [-]

Thank you.