gwern comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: CronoDAS 04 January 2011 01:18:07AM 7 points [-]

The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%

"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%

The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%

A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million

The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million

My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%

The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000

I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%

I get a "real job": 1%

Comment author: gwern 10 January 2011 11:24:22PM 2 points [-]

I assume these all are for 2011 given the year time-frame for the grandmother:

  1. unemployment: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2125
  2. inflation: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2126
  3. GRRM: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2127
  4. AGI: effective dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2092
  5. LHC: effective dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1432
  6. Grandmother prediction is moot
  7. Riemann: effective dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2094
  8. Magic: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2128
  9. job: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2129
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