gwern comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 03 January 2011 06:35:25AM 1 point [-]

California will implement austerity measures similar to the ones currently being implemented by European countries: 80%.

The bubble underlying the current Chinese boom will collapse: 35%.

Some European country will abandon the Euro: 20%.

Comment author: gwern 10 January 2011 11:31:01PM 0 points [-]

too vague
What does a Chinese bubble collapse look like? Suggested operationalizations: Shanghai or Hong Kong Stock Exchange prices, GDP growth
effective dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1374 or http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2031