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scav comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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Thanks
2 - I've put up a more precise prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2134
5 - I've put up a more precise prediction asserting a Nobel prize win for a non-string unification theory by end of 2020.
5 - http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2135
No offense, but I think you are dramatically, shockingly, overconfident here at 50%. Have you ever looked at the time lag for Nobel Prizes? The lags tend to start at a few decades. Look at the recent Prize for fiber optics - that work was done, like, 50 years ago.
So, you expect a new theory to be created and worked out in all its details, get experimental support, go through the usual Kuhnian progress, and be ratified by a Nobel Prize in 10 years?
Wow yeah; good catch. You are of course right about the time lag, which I hadn't researched when I pulled that guess out of my arse. I think I'll retract this prediction.