Thanks
2 - I've put up a more precise prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2134
5 - I've put up a more precise prediction asserting a Nobel prize win for a non-string unification theory by end of 2020.
5 - http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2135
No offense, but I think you are dramatically, shockingly, overconfident here at 50%. Have you ever looked at the time lag for Nobel Prizes? The lags tend to start at a few decades. Look at the recent Prize for fiber optics - that work was done, like, 50 years ago.
So, you expect a new theory to be created and worked out in all its details, get experimental support, go through the usual Kuhnian progress, and be ratified by a Nobel Prize in 10 years?
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!