MBlume comments on Counterfactual Mugging - Less Wrong

52 Post author: Vladimir_Nesov 19 March 2009 06:08AM

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Comment author: kurige 19 March 2009 10:34:18AM *  5 points [-]

That's not the situation in question. The scenario laid out by Vladimir_Nesov does not allow for an equal probability of getting $10000 and paying $100. Omega has already flipped the coin, and it's already been decided that I'm on the "losing" side. Join that with the fact that me giving $100 now does not increase the chance of me getting $10000 in the future because there is no repetition.

Perhaps there's something fundamental I'm missing here, but the linearity of events seems pretty clear. If Omega really did calculate that I would give him the $100 then either he miscalculated, or this situation cannot actually occur.

-- EDIT --

There is a third possibility after reading Cameron's reply... If Omega is correct and honest, then I am indeed going to give up the money.

But it's a bit of a trick question, isn't it? I'm going to give up the money because Omega says I'm going to give up the money and everything Omega says is gospel truth. However, if Omega hadn't said that I would give up the money, then I wouldn't of given up the money. Which makes this a bit of an impossible situation.

Assuming the existence of Omega, his intelligence, and his honesty, this scenario is an impossibility.

Comment author: MBlume 19 March 2009 11:00:44AM 4 points [-]

Omega hasn't told you his predictions in the given scenario.