brianm comments on Counterfactual Mugging - Less Wrong
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But this is precisely what humans don't do, because we respond to a "near" situation differently than a "far" one. Your advance prediction of your decision is untrustworthy unless you can successfully simulate the real future environment in your mind with sufficient sensory detail to invoke "near" reasoning. Otherwise, you will fail to reach a consistent decision in the actual situation.
Unless of course, In the actual situation, you're projecting back, "What would I have decided in advance to do had I thought about this in advance?" -- and you successfully mitigate all priming effects and situationally-motivated reasoning.
Or to put all of the above in short, common-wisdom form: "that's easy for you to say NOW..." ;-)