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mwaser comments on Counterfactual Mugging - Less Wrong
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Imagine that one day you come home to see your neighbors milling about your house and the Publisher's Clearinghouse (PHC) van just pulling away. You know that PHC has been running a new schtick recently of selling $100 lottery tickets to win $10,000 instead of just giving money away. In fact, you've used that very contest as a teachable moment with your kids to explain how once the first ticket of the 100 printed was sold, scratched, and determined not to be the winner -- that the average expected value of the remaining tickets was greater than their cost and they were therefore increasingly worth buying. Now, it's weeks later, most of the tickets have been sold, scratched, and not winners and they came to your house. In fact, there were only two tickets remaining. And you weren't home. Fortunately, your neighbor and best friend Bob asked if he could buy the ticket for you. Sensing a great human interest story (and lots of publicity), PHC said yes. Unfortunately, Bob picked the wrong ticket. After all your neighbors disperse and Bob and you are alone, Bob says that he'd really appreciate it if he could get his hundred dollars back. Is he mugging you? Or, do you give it to him?
Yes, I think you still owe him the $100.
But I like how you made it into a relatively realistic scenario.
Considering the ticket was worth $5,000 when he bought it, sure.
Did you give the same answer to Omega? The cases are exactly analogous. (Or do you argue that they are not?)
The outcomes don't seem to be tied together as they were in the original problem; is it true that if had he won, he would only then have given you the money if, had he not won, you would have given him the $100 back? That isn't clear.
The disanalogy here is that you have a long term social relationship with Bob that you don't have with Omega, and the $100 are an investment into that relationship.
Also, there is the possibility of future scenarios arising in which Bob could choose to take comparable actions, and we want to encourage him in doing so. I agree that the cases are not exactly analogous.