ec429 comments on Counterfactual Mugging - Less Wrong

52 Post author: Vladimir_Nesov 19 March 2009 06:08AM

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Comment author: Lightwave 20 March 2009 07:26:37PM *  3 points [-]

Okay, I agree that this level of precomitting is not necessary. But if the deal is really a one-time offer, then, when presented with the case of the coin already having come up tails, you can no longer ever benefit from being the sort of person who would precommit. Since you will never again be presented with a newcomb-like scenario, then you will have no benefit from being the precommiting type. Therefore you shouldn't give the $100.

If, on the other hand, you still expect that you can encounter some other Omega-like thing which will present you with such a scenario, doesn't this make the deal repeatable, which is not how the question was formulated?

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 21 March 2009 11:33:26PM 4 points [-]

If, on the other hand, you still expect that you can encounter some other Omega-like thing which will present you with such a scenario, doesn't this make the deal repeatable, which is not how the question was formulated?

In a repeatable deal your action influences the conditions in the next rounds. Even if you defect in this round, you may still cooperate in the next rounds, Omegas aren't looking back at how you decided in the past, and don't punish you by not offering the deals. Your success in the following rounds (from your current point of view) depends on whether you manage to precommit to the future encounters, not on what you do now.