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dclayh comments on Counterfactual Mugging - Less Wrong
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Comments (257)
This problem seems conceptually identical to Kavka's toxin puzzle; we have merely replaced intending to drink the poison/pay $100 with being the sort of person whom Omega would predict would do it.
Since, as has been pointed out, one needn't be a perfect predictor for the game to work, I think I'll actually try this on some of my friends.
Thanks for reminding of the Kavka's puzzle. I think that puzzle is unnecessarily mental in its formulation, for example you have to "intend". It's less confusing when you work on more technical concepts of decision-making, evidence, preference and precommitment.
I can't imagine how you are going to perform this on your friends...
The main problem, I think, is getting them to believe that I'm a reliable predictor (i.e. that I predict as well as I claim I do).
Actually, I don't know that if I do this it will show anything relevant to the problem under consideration. But I think it will show something. It has in fact already shown that I believe that 59% of them would agree to give me the money, either because they are sufficiently similar to Eliezer, or because they enjoy random acts of silliness (and the amount of money involved will be pretty trivial).
Did you do it? And if so, did you give away money to the friends you predicted would have given you money, if the coin came up that way?
How much money did you lose?
No, I never got around to actually doing it I'm afraid.