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dclayh comments on Counterfactual Mugging - Less Wrong
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The main problem, I think, is getting them to believe that I'm a reliable predictor (i.e. that I predict as well as I claim I do).
Actually, I don't know that if I do this it will show anything relevant to the problem under consideration. But I think it will show something. It has in fact already shown that I believe that 59% of them would agree to give me the money, either because they are sufficiently similar to Eliezer, or because they enjoy random acts of silliness (and the amount of money involved will be pretty trivial).
Did you do it? And if so, did you give away money to the friends you predicted would have given you money, if the coin came up that way?
How much money did you lose?
No, I never got around to actually doing it I'm afraid.