findis comments on Counterfactual Mugging - Less Wrong
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If it's rational to do this when Omega asks you in advance, isn't it also rational to make such a commitment right now? Whether you make the commitment in response to Omega's notification, or on a whim when considering the thought experiment in response to a blog post makes no difference to the payoff. If you now commit to a "if this exact situation comes up, I will commit to paying the $100 if I lose the coinflip", and p(x) is the probability of this situation occurring, you will achieve a net gain of $4950*p(x) over a non-committer (a very small number admittedly given that p(x) is tiny, but for the sake of the thought experiment all that matters is that it's positive.)
Given that someone who makes such a precommitment comes out ahead of someone who doesn't - shouldn't you make such a commitment right now? Extend this and make a precommitment to always make the decision to perform the action that would maximise your average returns in all such newcombelike situations and you're going to come off even better on average.
Right now, yes, I should precommit to pay the $100 in all such situations, since the expected value is p(x)*$4950.
If Omega just walked up to me and asked for $100, and I had never considered this before, the value of this commitment is now p(x)*$4950 - $100, so I would not pay unless I thought there was more than a 2% chance this would happen again.