thrawnca comments on Counterfactual Mugging - Less Wrong

52 Post author: Vladimir_Nesov 19 March 2009 06:08AM

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Comment author: thrawnca 18 August 2016 02:52:47AM *  0 points [-]

is the decision to give up $100 when you have no real benefit from it, only counterfactual benefit, an example of winning?

No, it's a clear loss.

The only winning scenario is, "the coin comes down heads and you have an effective commitment to have paid if it came down tails."

By making a binding precommitment, you effectively gamble that the coin will come down heads. If it comes down tails instead, clearly you have lost the gamble. Giving the $100 when you didn't even make the precommitment would just be pointlessly giving away money.