Vladimir_M comments on Techniques for probability estimates - Less Wrong

58 Post author: Yvain 04 January 2011 11:38PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_M 05 January 2011 03:31:19AM 2 points [-]

Mass_Driver:

This doesn't work great even if you deal with moderate probabilities, because you need high fractions of net worth to get people to stop signaling...

Yes, and there's also the issue of transaction costs. Especially since transaction costs are basically the opportunity costs of the time spent arranging the bet and the payment, and for people with higher net worth, these opportunity costs are typically also higher.