shokwave comments on Techniques for probability estimates - Less Wrong

58 Post author: Yvain 04 January 2011 11:38PM

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Comment author: shokwave 05 January 2011 09:37:27AM *  4 points [-]

Surely you can teach yourself to compare intuitive certainty to probabilities, though. I mean, if you come up with rough labels for levels of intuitive certainty, and record how often each label is right or wrong, you'd get a really rough corresponding probability already.

Edit: Oh, this is predictionbook's raison d'ĂȘtre.