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Spurlock comments on Techniques for probability estimates - Less Wrong
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I have to admit... I'm mostly confused by this comment. Not by the math, but by exactly what you're getting at/disagreeing with.
If you're just saying that the doomsday scenario isn't perfectly analogous to the Omega scenario, I accept this, and never meant to imply that it was. I was only pointing out that the "if I lose I'll be dead anyway" general type of reasoning could be applied to the other situation (and not necessarily through explicitly betting against the other party). If you're saying that it couldn't, then I confess that I still don't understand why from your comment.
My point is that actually, you don't get any extra expected value from the doomsayer's "if I lose I'll be dead anyway" reasoning. You get exactly as much expected value from them as you would get from anyone with any kind of prediction whose accuracy is lower than your own by the same amount.
In contrast, WrongBot did get to capitalize on a special "if I lose I'm dead" property of his bet, and my previous post details the important properties that make WrongBot's bet atypical (properties that your own bet does not have).
Ah, I see then where we miscommunicated. I meant that I, not he, would be applying that reasoning. I strongly anticipate not being dead, and for the purposes of this bet (and only for this bet) don't care if I'm wrong about it. He would strongly anticipate being dead, and might therefore neglect the possibility that he'll have to suffer the consequences of whatever we're doing. My losing the bet is "protected" (in a rather dreary way), his isn't.
Obviously, I haven't worked out the details, and probably won't actually go around taking advantage of these people, but it occurred to me the other day while I was pondering how one should almost always be able to turn better-calibrated expectations into utility.
Hey, they'd be happy enough to still be alive, and you could donate the proceeds to eradicating polio. But unfortunately you'd also be encouraging people to take existential threats less seriously in general, which may be a bad idea. I can't decide.
Anyway, good luck finding a believer in any kind of woo who is prepared to make a cash wager on a testable outcome. Think how quickly we would have eradicated homeopathy and astrology by now! :)