Nornagest comments on Techniques for probability estimates - Less Wrong

58 Post author: Yvain 04 January 2011 11:38PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (58)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Nornagest 05 January 2011 10:14:34PM *  2 points [-]

I wonder if there's a reasonably straightforward way to find a function for yourself such that your subjective utility is roughly linear over f($). That'd make the betting approach a lot more widely applicable.

log( (net worth + payoff) / net worth) times some constant seems like a good start, but I already see some possible flaws.

Comment author: SimonF 06 January 2011 06:42:07PM 2 points [-]

I believe there is a straightforward way: Consider bets on events with known probability!