fischer comments on Techniques for probability estimates - Less Wrong

58 Post author: Yvain 04 January 2011 11:38PM

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Comment author: fischer 07 January 2011 02:17:30AM *  0 points [-]

"The plan is to roll an n-sided numbered die and have the faithful of all religions pray for the die to land on "1"

Elijah did this; from what I can tell, it was insufficient to end disagreement :) Read 1st Kings 18 (alternatively, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elijah#Challenge_to_Baal">wikipedia</a>

Comment author: orthonormal 07 January 2011 03:44:09AM 0 points [-]

When you edit this comment, click the "Help" link to the lower right of the text box for more information on the Markdown syntax. It doesn't accept HTML, alas.

Comment author: Desrtopa 07 January 2011 02:30:05AM 0 points [-]

The god of the one true religion will refuse to intervene to punish its believers for cooperating with the members of all the other religions for the experiment.

Comment author: shokwave 07 January 2011 03:04:59AM 2 points [-]

I'd bet good money the god of the one true religion is permeable to flour too.

Comment author: Desrtopa 07 January 2011 03:51:56AM 3 points [-]

Well if I were omnipotent, I'm sure I'd use my powers to avoid getting covered with flour.

Comment author: shokwave 07 January 2011 04:06:31AM 1 point [-]

Upvoted for precise use of anthropomorphic bias (less certain: to highlight the common anthropocentric distortions of God concepts).

Comment author: Will_Sawin 08 January 2011 02:25:52AM 1 point [-]

Prediction: The die comes up 666.

Confidence: If N>665, slightly higher than 1/N due to ironic gods. If N<666, 0.