Desrtopa comments on Techniques for probability estimates - Less Wrong

58 Post author: Yvain 04 January 2011 11:38PM

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Comment author: fischer 07 January 2011 02:17:30AM *  0 points [-]

"The plan is to roll an n-sided numbered die and have the faithful of all religions pray for the die to land on "1"

Elijah did this; from what I can tell, it was insufficient to end disagreement :) Read 1st Kings 18 (alternatively, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elijah#Challenge_to_Baal">wikipedia</a>

Comment author: Desrtopa 07 January 2011 02:30:05AM 0 points [-]

The god of the one true religion will refuse to intervene to punish its believers for cooperating with the members of all the other religions for the experiment.

Comment author: shokwave 07 January 2011 03:04:59AM 2 points [-]

I'd bet good money the god of the one true religion is permeable to flour too.

Comment author: Desrtopa 07 January 2011 03:51:56AM 3 points [-]

Well if I were omnipotent, I'm sure I'd use my powers to avoid getting covered with flour.

Comment author: shokwave 07 January 2011 04:06:31AM 1 point [-]

Upvoted for precise use of anthropomorphic bias (less certain: to highlight the common anthropocentric distortions of God concepts).

Comment author: Will_Sawin 08 January 2011 02:25:52AM 1 point [-]

Prediction: The die comes up 666.

Confidence: If N>665, slightly higher than 1/N due to ironic gods. If N<666, 0.

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