fischer comments on Techniques for probability estimates - Less Wrong

58 Post author: Yvain 04 January 2011 11:38PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (58)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: shokwave 07 January 2011 03:00:31AM 1 point [-]

For this, I would use the 'smash-together' method. "How many months have contained an experience of a computer breaking on me?" over "How many months have I owned computers?" will give me the probability of the computer breaking in any given month, and then the graph y=(1-pr(break))^x represents the continuous variable "My computer is not broken". This takes about five minutes: it's worth it for cars, computers, homes, smartphones, etc. But you're right, too annoying for smaller cases.

Comment author: fischer 07 January 2011 04:56:54AM 0 points [-]

That's actually a pretty good idea, shokwave - thanks