I just found this with google. I spent much time in 2005-2007 to get experts assign a subjective probability to a severe (H5N1) pandemic with >100M deaths. This was a strange experience. Experts didn't want to give probabilities but painted a somehow dark picture in interviews.Economists ignored the problem in their models (mortality bonds rating). Among the few who gave estimates were Bob Gleeson and Michael Steele with ~20% per year. The same problem occurs in other sciences : ask your surgeon for the probability that you'll die or your lawer for the probability to win the process or your teacher for the probability that you'll pass the exam or the candidate for his probability to win the election or the president for his probability of a nuclear war or global recession etc. These would be useful information, even if only subjective, informal. Yet people usually won't give them. Make a better society with people giving probability estimates !

pandemic probabilities: http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewforum.php?f=10&sid=2d1caa0fad5093a8c4291f45e0d39b67&mforum=fluwiki2