Discussion for Eliezer Yudkowsky's paper: Timeless Decision Theory

Alexei

I have not seen any place to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's new paper, titled Timeless Decision Theory, so I decided to create a discussion post. (Have I missed an already existing post or discussion?)

So, am I the only one perplexed by why people care about Newcomb's Problem? Like most paradoxes, the confusion is entirely due to a posing the problem in a confusing way; clean things up, and then it becomes obvious. But it strikes me as difficult to get an explanation that's less than a page long out there and taken seriously.

In addition to what the others have said, the class of "Newcomblike problems" does map to real-world scenarios. I do agree that insufficient effort has been spent describing such situations though, which is why I'm compiling examples for a possible article. Here's a peak at what I have so far:

The decision of whether to shoplift is a real-life Newcomb's problem. It is easy to get away with, and your decision does not cause (in the technical sense) the opportunity to exist (the "box" to be "filled"). However, merchants onl

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1saturn15y

It's not interesting as a brain teaser but as a test case for decision theories. Newcomb's is especially interesting because Newcomb's-winning agents have the potential to reach Pareto efficient outcomes without needing precommitments or other outside help.

1Alexei15y

I think the confusion comes from the difference in importance to win conflicts vs. to make the correct decision. Many people who think about this problem go "ah, doing X is the obvious solution." When asked to be more formal they come up with decision theories. Other people then explore those theories and find their flaws. Newcomb's problem is important because it led (may be not directly, but I think it contributed) to the schism into evidential decision theory and causal decision theory. Both have different approaches to solving problems.

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Discussion for Eliezer Yudkowsky's paper: Timeless Decision Theory

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Discussion for Eliezer Yudkowsky's paper: Timeless Decision Theory

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