I think that Newcomb's Problem is a terrible central example to work off of, though. Most of those look like they can be instrumentalized by reputation far better, and then everyone gets the right answers.
I don't think that works. Purely causal calculations of the costs/benefits, even accounting for reputation, can't explain the winning answers in any of those cases except maybe expensive punishment. And even then, you can just use the harder version of the problem I gave in the linked discussion: what if, even accounting for future impact on the criminal and others who are deterred, the punishment still has a net cost?
Could you give me an idea of what you mean by e.g. a causal account of why:
I have not seen any place to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's new paper, titled Timeless Decision Theory, so I decided to create a discussion post. (Have I missed an already existing post or discussion?)