It's true that people usually give the winning answers to these problems ...
I think that the source of the communication problem is that some people use the word "winning" for a result that other people would not characterize as a "win".
It is also confusing that you ask for a causal account of something and then shift to a paragraph talking about normative theories and "winning". I suppose it is possible to give an evolutionary account which incorporates both the normative and the causal - is this what you are asking for? Are you asking for an argument that not shoplifting is an ESS? I don't think that one is possible in a society that eschews "punishment".
Lots of separate issues getting tangled up here. Let me try to clarify what I mean:
1) I meant a win in the sense that the aggregate, people's shoplifting decisions lead them to have opportunities that they would not have if they calculated the optimality of shoplifting as causal decision theorists. There is certainly a (corresponding, dual) sense in which people don't win -- specifically, the case where their recognition of certain rights is so lacking that they don't actually every get the opportunity to shoplift -- or even buy -- certain goods in the f...
I have not seen any place to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's new paper, titled Timeless Decision Theory, so I decided to create a discussion post. (Have I missed an already existing post or discussion?)