Lots of separate issues getting tangled up here. Let me try to clarify what I mean:

1) I meant a win in the sense that the aggregate, people's shoplifting decisions lead them to have opportunities that they would not have if they calculated the optimality of shoplifting as causal decision theorists. There is certainly a (corresponding, dual) sense in which people don't win -- specifically, the case where their recognition of certain rights is so lacking that they don't actually every get the opportunity to shoplift -- or even buy -- certain goods in the first place. These are the stores and business models that don't exist in the first place and leave us in a Pareto-inferior position. (IP recognition, I'm looking in your general direction here.)

2) When I asked for a causal account above, what I meant was, "How do you explain, assuming everyone uses CDT, why most people don't shoplift, given the constraints I listed?" That is, what CDT-type reasoning tells you not to shoplift when it's trivial to get away with?

3) I claim that it is possible -- in fact, necessary -- to give an evolutionary account of why people don't act purely as causal decision theorists (and it's not particularly important what you call the non-causal motivations behind their decisions), since people demonstrably differ from CDT. (My Parfitian filter article was an attempt, citing Drescher, to account for these non-causal, "moral" components of human reasoning through natural selection.)

4) However, I don't think the the issue of ESSes and shoplifting are necessarily connected in the sense that you have to explain the (absence of) the latter as the former. However, I believe the opportunity to shoplift is a real-world example of Newcomb's problem, in which people (do the analogue of) one-box, even though it's certainly not because of TDT-type reasoning. This raises the question of why people use a decision theory that gives the same results as TDT would on a "contrived" problem.