Could you give me an idea of what you mean by e.g. a causal account of why:
People that don't shoplift lose more identity by shoplifting than they gain in stolen product.
That means I disagree with the claim that each person is made strictly better off by their local decision to shoplift. If they were actually made better off, they would shoplift. Actions reveal preferences.
This is the issue I got into in the Parfitian filter article I wrote. (And later in some exchanges with Perplexed.)
Basically, the problem with your second paragraph is that actions do not uniquely determine preferences. (See in particular the a/b theory comparisons in the article.) There are an infinite number of preference sets -- not to mention preference/belief sets -- that can explain any given action. So, you have to use a few more constraints to explain behavior.
That, in turn, leads you to the question of whether an agent is pursuing a terminal v...
I have not seen any place to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's new paper, titled Timeless Decision Theory, so I decided to create a discussion post. (Have I missed an already existing post or discussion?)