["Shoplifting is risk-free"] is false, but easily close enough to truth for our purposes.
I don't think so. Shoplifting is more and less risky in different places and situations. I bet that the amount of shoplifting is monotone increasing in the amount of risk, even when that amount is relatively small. If that's true, then "why don't people shoplift more" doesn't require an explanation beyond "because they don't want to take the risk." Do you disagree?
Yes, I disagree. Keep in mind, there is a very wide variety of protection a store can have for its goods. The depends on the value of the goods, but also on the "kind of person" that exists in the area, and the latter factor is crucial to understanding the dynamic I'm trying to highlight.
For the same goods, a store will have more security measures in areas where the "kind of people" (decision theory types) tend to steal more. But the population is never uniform. So, although the security measures account for some percentage of preve...
I have not seen any place to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's new paper, titled Timeless Decision Theory, so I decided to create a discussion post. (Have I missed an already existing post or discussion?)