Seconding jimrandomh: you seem to be talking about issues that don't matter to decision theory very much. Let me reframe.
My own interest in the topic was sparked by Eliezer's remark about "AIs that know each other's source code". As far as I understand, his interest in decision theory isn't purely academic, it's supposed to be applied to building an AI. So the simplest possible approach is to try "solving decision theory" for deterministic programs that are dropped into various weird setups. It's not even necessary to explicitly disallow randomization: the predictor can give you a pony if it can prove you cooperate, and no pony otherwise. This way it's in your interest in some situations to be provably cooperative.
Now, if you're an AI that can modify your own source code, you will self-modify to become "provably cooperative" in precisely those situations where the payoff structure makes it beneficial. (And correspondingly "credibly threatening" in those situations that call for credible threats, I guess.) Classifying such situations, and mechanical ways of reasoning about them, is the whole point of our decision theory studies. Of course no one can prohibit you from randomizing in adversarial situations, e.g. if you assign a higher utility to proving Omega wrong than to getting a pony.
I definitely appreciate your and jimrandomh's comments. I am rereading Eliezer's paper again in light of these comments and clearly getting more on the "decision theory" page as I go.
Provably cooperative seems problematic, but maybe not. As a concept certainly useful. But is there any way to PROVE that the AI is actually running the code she shows you? I suspect probably not.
Also, where I was coming from with my comments may be a misunderstanding of what Eliezer was doing with Newcomb but it may not. At least in other posts, if not in th...
I have not seen any place to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's new paper, titled Timeless Decision Theory, so I decided to create a discussion post. (Have I missed an already existing post or discussion?)