I think LWers may be intrigued...
Tim McGrew, author of this excellent annotated bibliography on Bayesian reasoning, recently co-authored with his wife Lydia a Bayesian defense of the resurrection of Jesus. I interviewed Lydia for my podcast, here. Atheist Richard Carrier has leveled some objections to their article, but his objections are weak.
Have at it.
But conditional on his existence, the moon is probably made out of cheese.
Is there some joke I'm missing? P(Moon made out of cheese|Jesus is a historical figure) is still very very low.