One of my favored arguments against the historicity of the miracle accounts in the gospels is drawn directly from my own experiences in middle school.
I went to some lengths to convince other children at school that I was an alien. I was smarter than the vast majority of students at my school, and was able to blind them with science so that a fair number actually came to believe my claims. Not only did I manage to convince a number of students myself, many went on to convince other students, making up feats I had not and could not perform as "evidence."
I can't say for sure that all the students who claimed to believe that I was an alien actually did, but a number staked a considerable amount of social status on their belief in my claims, so I'm fairly confident they were not all faking it.
Anyway, it was that experience that taught me about people's propensity to simply make up evidence to convince others of their beliefs.
My favorite part of this anecdote is that it still gets the point across even if I am lying, and made the whole thing up myself.
I can see a few problems with your example:
Now, compare that with the Hebrew apostles, and consider that, even today, to become a "completed Jew" can cut you off from your entire family. Imagine what it would be like in those days.
I think LWers may be intrigued...
Tim McGrew, author of this excellent annotated bibliography on Bayesian reasoning, recently co-authored with his wife Lydia a Bayesian defense of the resurrection of Jesus. I interviewed Lydia for my podcast, here. Atheist Richard Carrier has leveled some objections to their article, but his objections are weak.
Have at it.