I think LWers may be intrigued...
Tim McGrew, author of this excellent annotated bibliography on Bayesian reasoning, recently co-authored with his wife Lydia a Bayesian defense of the resurrection of Jesus. I interviewed Lydia for my podcast, here. Atheist Richard Carrier has leveled some objections to their article, but his objections are weak.
Have at it.
Oh, I thought it was an attempt to apply some sort of (nonexistent) analog of the principle of explosion...
Actually straightforward explosion works. "The moon is probably made out of cheese" can be taken as a statement in propositional logic.