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Psychohistorian comments on A Bayesian Argument for the Resurrection of Jesus - Less Wrong
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This doesn't appear to consider the implications this has for other religions; namely, if the story of the resurrection is true, that means that all (or most) other religions must be wrong. Thus, evidence that other religions are not wrong (and I imagine many have as much going for them as the resurrection, if not far more) is pretty necessarily additional evidence against the resurrection (or at the very least against attaching religious significance to it).
This is still a much weaker counterpoint that the impropriety of multiplying probabilities, unfounded assumptions of honesty, and (not mentioned) the problem of survivorship bias: there were likely hundreds of such accounts during that era, but only one of them happened to evolve into a religion and have its writings and accounts preserved long enough for us to see them today.
I'm glad you mentioned survivorship bias. It allows us to consider the possibility that there were reasons why the story of the resurrection of Christ would be more likely to survive than others.
The story of a great savior dying and/or descending into Hell to save someone they love was very old even at the time. The cult of Persephone was well-known to the Jews; Persephone spending a season each year in Hades bought life for the land and special rewards for followers in the afterlife. Gilgamesh went into the depths to save his dearest friend Enkidu; Gilgamesh is thought to have lived around 2500 BC, and the Epic of Gilgamesh was well-known to the ancient world (one copy was dated to the 7th century BC).
Those are stories Jesus and his contemporaries would already have heard. Plus, they have come through the ages to us today. The story of Jesus going to Hell and coming back followed a well-trodden path, one that made many a religion popular.