I think LWers may be intrigued...
Tim McGrew, author of this excellent annotated bibliography on Bayesian reasoning, recently co-authored with his wife Lydia a Bayesian defense of the resurrection of Jesus. I interviewed Lydia for my podcast, here. Atheist Richard Carrier has leveled some objections to their article, but his objections are weak.
Have at it.
Just from very quickly skimming the paper, what bentam said seems denotatively true but connotatively very incomplete, not totally untrue though.
McGrew argues that, assuming independence, the Bayes Factor would be 10^39, and they do use it throughout the paper. It is a silly number, and they do reach it by assuming independence - which is a ridiculous hypothesis.
bentam implies that, had they not done so, they would have reached a more sensible figure, and that by assuming the generous (to them) hypothesis in the paper, true they have not argued against the least convenient likely position for them, which makes the paper dismissible.
What they actually do is conclude that, the less independent the testimony of the apostles, the more likely the whole story is to be true, by virtue of the evidence going from the likelihood of the supposed apparent conviction of them to the likelihood of the event's truth swamping out that of the evidence going the other way.
Yes, you read what I wrote correctly, and I didn't misspeak. I think that's what she's saying.
So McGrew does her intellectual duty by arguing throughout the paper for what she believes to be the lower bounds of the Bayes Factor, the true least convenient possible world, contrary to as implied by bentam.
She's not arguing dishonestly, so she has to compensate with unreasonable assumptions that lead to conclusions like 10^39 being the lower bound.