A good nutshell description of the type of Bayesianism that many LWers think correct is objective Bayesianism with critical rationalism-like underpinnings. Where recursive justification hits bottom is particularly relevant. On my cursory skim, Albert only seems to be addressing "subjective" Bayesianism which allows for any choice of prior.
It seems to think the problem of the priors does in Bayesianism :-(
Popper seems outdated. Rejecting induction completely is not very realistic.
Definitions as in "let's set up this situation and see which choices make sense". It's pretty much all like the Dutch book arguments.
I don't think I understand. This would rely on your conception of the real life situation (if you want it to apply to real life), of what what makes sense, being correct. That goes way beyond deductive or definitions into substantive claims.
Do you think that the Dutch book arguments go "way beyond deductive or definitions"? Well, I guess that would depend on what you conclude from them. For now, lets say "there is a need to assign probabilities to events, no probability can be less than 0 or more than 1 and probabilities of mutually exclusive events should add".
About decisions, if a method like "choose by whim" gets you a good result in a particular case, you're happy with it? You don't care that it doesn't make any sense if it works out this time?
The confusion here is that we're not judging an action. If I make a mistake and happen to benefit from it, there were good consequences, but there was no choice involved. I don't care about this; it already happened. What I do care about, and what I can accomplish, is avoiding similar mistakes in the future.
If you want to discuss what people should do, rather than what they do do, that is a moral issue.
Yes, that is what I was discussing. I probably don't want to actually get into my arguments here. Can you give an example of what you mean by "moral knowledge"?
Applying dutch book arguments to real life situations always goes way behind deduction and definitions, yes.
lets say "there is a need to assign probabilities to events, no probability can be less than 0 or more than 1 and probabilities of mutually exclusive events should add".
A need? Are you talking about morality now?
Why are we saying this? You now speak of probabilities of events. Previously we were discussing epistemology which is about ideas. I object to assigning probabilities to the truth of ideas. Assigning them to events is OK when
1) ...
I have just rediscovered an article by Max Albert on my hard drive which I never got around to reading that might interest others on Less Wrong. You can find the article here. It is an argument against Bayesianism and for Critical Rationalism (of Karl Popper fame).
Abstract:
Any thoughts?