It might even lead to worse outcomes in the current case, if it turns out that the reason Water signs do better with treatment A in this data set is that the assignment of subjects to treatments in the study was in some way related to their date of birth.

If I have good reasons to believe that factor X doesn't cause events of class Y, and I have data that seems to demonstrate that factor X is causing an event of class Y in one particular case, and I don't have the time to explore that data further, I ought to take seriously the theory that the causation is not what it seems to be.