bentarm comments on Simpson's Paradox - Less Wrong

68 Post author: bentarm 12 January 2011 11:01PM

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Comment author: sfb 14 January 2011 03:49:36PM 0 points [-]

I think the key message is that you shouldn't be making causal inferences from correlational conclusions

I've sorted out what I was thinking a bit more. I was not saying "am I justified in believing that the alignment of stars and planets is the cause here", what I was saying is:

If someone tells us that women born under Aries, Leo or Sagittarius do better with treatment A, as do those born under the Earth, Air and Water signs, would we really be willing to switch treatments?

Yes we should be willing to act in a way that appears to support astrology - this paragraph is supporting wisdom as the opposite of stupidity, or decision making by fear of public embarrassment.