Manfred comments on I want to learn economics - Less Wrong

8 Post author: alexflint 13 January 2011 11:02PM

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Comment author: Manfred 15 January 2011 02:58:51AM *  3 points [-]

I'd like to advise some caution of Freakonomics - they set off a BS-detecting heuristic that I learned from a book on the epistemology of aliens and bigfoot... next time I visit my parents I'll have to type up the story for you guys.

Anyhow, the heuristic is this: if the amount of BS you detect is proportional to how well-versed you are in the current topic, it's probably that bad for all topics and you just don't know it. Their chapter on climate science was pretty bad, so I thought about it more critically and noticed a clear case of this in their second book. Not necessarily that bad factually, but similar levels of rigor.

Comment author: Vaniver 15 January 2011 06:15:12AM 3 points [-]

Seconded. The result that made the book popular- abortion reduces crime- was so strongly contested by Steve Sailer (debate here) and others that I'd call it refuted.

In the book, Levitt makes a comment at some point that he wasn't good at the mathematics side of economics, but was great at the unconventional thinking side. That set my alarms blaring, because thinking unconventional things is no credit when you screw up the math. Which Levitt appears to have done at least once.