Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Rational Repentance - Less Wrong

36 Post author: Mass_Driver 14 January 2011 09:37AM

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Comment author: Anatoly_Vorobey 15 January 2011 08:32:23PM *  30 points [-]

I think your examples are terrible, and in part it's because they're political - but for a somewhat different reason than the one elaborated in Politics is the Mind-killer.

First, there's the mismatch between the problem you're addressing and the problem your examples illustrate. The problem you're addressing is how to make sure your behavior changes to match your updated beliefs. In this problem, your beliefs have already updated due to the weight of the evidence, but for some reason (and your list of plausible reasons is compelling) your habitual behavior fails to reflect this change in your beliefs. However, both your examples aren't about that at all - they're about beliefs not changing in the face of the evidence. Josh Stieber's fellow soldiers did not change their minds about whether they should be in Iraq. Your example actually appears to argue that they should have, if they behaved rationally - but whether or not it's true, there's no relevance to the problem your post addresses. At one point, you're doing a sleight of hand of sorts (unintentionally, I'm sure):

One of Josh's commanders wound up coming around to Josh's point of view to the extent of being able to agree to disagree and give Josh a hug, but still kept ordering people to kill the locals. One wonders: what would it take to get the commander to change not just his mind, but his actions?

But the commander didn't change his mind, not to the point that would necessitate changing his actions. He merely "agreed to disagree". So there's no one in the first example who's failing to update their behavior following an update to their beliefs.

With the second example it's even worse, because it's more vague. I'm not sure who here is supposed to have updated their actions but didn't - I think it's the international food donors, and, in particular, "well-intentioned leaders who have reason to know that their policies are counterproductive but who are unable or unwilling to change their behavior to reflect that knowledge". But the fact that their policies are counterproductive (granting that for the sake of the argument) is no evidence that they possess that knowledge, that they updated their beliefs accordingly. People do all kinds of counterproductive things all the time while maintaining their belief in their usefulness. To illustrate your problem, you need those food donors to have decided, under the weight of the evidence, that they're doing the wrong thing, yet to persist in doing it. I don't think you have anything like that in your example. Like the first one, it's primarily about people not updating their beliefs when they ought to, in the face of the evidence.

Now, as examples of people not changing their minds when the evidence is compelling, your two examples are terrible - primarily because they're political. And why this should be so is, I think, an interesting aside. It is not because using a political example tends to antagonize some of the readers needlessly - that by itself is true, and a good reason to avoid political examples while talking about rationality, but is only a minor factor here, to my mind. Much more important is this: the story of people failing to account for compelling evidence is by itself a familiar, ubiquitous, low-status specimen of political propaganda.

In fact, one of the most frequent arguments you encounter as you read political discussions is the argument that the other side are ignoring obvious facts, and so failing to behave rationally, because they're blinded by their ideology. To a first approximation, everyone believes that about everyone else. Take any well-divided political issue, and you'll find people on both sides building up detailed stories that show what it is exactly that ought to convince any reasonable person, but fails to convince their opponents due to their ideological bias. Such stories are almost always wrong. Typically they do one or several of: (i) exaggerate the evidence or misrepresent its degree of uncertainty; (ii) ignore conflicting evidence to the other direction; (iii) tacitly assume a host of underlying convictions that are only obvious to your side; (iv) ignore any number of ways the other side could find to explain your evidence without changing their beliefs, not all of them contrived.

Because of these problems, it's reasonable to treat the whole genre of political stories of the "they failed to think rationally" kind as low-status and corrupt. These stories are always preaching to the choir, and only to the choir. They should not, and typically do not, convince an independent rational observer, much less anyone from "the other side". (The only exception is when such a story explicitly includes an explanation as to how it manages to avoid (i)-(iv) above. When such an explanation is compelling, the story may be saved. I think that happens very rarely).

I refrain from pointing out how (i)-(iv) apply particularly in the case of your first and second examples, because I think compiling such a list is easy enough, and avoiding an explicitly political discussion is a virtue.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 January 2011 08:02:37AM 4 points [-]

Consider rewriting this as a post?

Comment author: Plasmon 16 January 2011 09:05:01AM 15 points [-]

the story of people failing to account for compelling evidence is by itself a familiar, >ubiquitous, low-status specimen of political propaganda.

In fact, one of the most frequent arguments you encounter as you read political >discussions is the argument that the other side are ignoring obvious facts, and so >failing to behave rationally, because they're blinded by their ideology. To a first >approximation, everyone believes that about everyone else.

It seems to me that many of the arguments made on this site based on or referring to the Politics is the Mind-Killer article are based on extrapolations from a single well-known highly-polarized (essentially) 2-party system, i.e. the USA.

I am from a country with many political parties. No party ever gets more than 50% of the votes, in fact it is rare for any party to get over 20% of the votes. The parties are always forced to form a coalition to make a majority government. This system is not without its flaws, and far be it from me to argue that it is superior to the American system.

Nevertheless, it seems to me that many of the failure modes of 'politics', as often described of this site, are actually failure modes of present-day American politics, and not of politics in general.

For example, I encounter the argument described above, that "other side are ignoring obvious facts, and so failing to behave rationally, because they're blinded by their ideology" very rarely, even in political discussions. Politicians saying such things would find it hard to negotiate with other politicians to form a government, and are mostly smart enough to not say such things. They would have no difficulty admitting that other politicians/parties behave differently simply because they have different goals (they represent the interests of a different set of voters), while still acting on almost the same set of evidence.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 17 January 2011 11:46:57PM *  5 points [-]

For example, I encounter the argument described above, that "other side are ignoring obvious facts, and so failing to behave rationally, because they're blinded by their ideology" very rarely, even in political discussions. Politicians saying such things would find it hard to negotiate with other politicians to form a government, and are mostly smart enough to not say such things. They would have no difficulty admitting that other politicians/parties behave differently simply because they have different goals (they represent the interests of a different set of voters), while still acting on almost the same set of evidence.

  1. I would expect that some parties know that they will never form a coalition with certain other parties. If so, do these "incompatible pairs" show more inclination to accuse each other of ideological blindness?

  2. It sounds like people within your country are pretty ideologically homogeneous. But you must differ ideologically from other countries. Your homogeneity leads me to expect that your country is relatively small. This, in turn, means that, relative to a larger country, you probably have less control over the policies of other countries, but those policies have a greater effect on your country's interests. Does the "ideological blindness" explanation sometimes get invoked when talking about why people in other countries chose those policies? (For example, I have seen some people in European countries blame some of their economic problems on a world-wide economic meltdown caused by the free-market ideology of the United States.)

Comment author: Plasmon 18 January 2011 07:06:00AM *  0 points [-]

I would expect that some parties know that they will never form a coalition with certain other parties. If so, do these "incompatible pairs" show more inclination to accuse each other of ideological blindness?

There is a party that is shunned by most other parties because it is almost universally agreed upon to be a racist party (even by themselves in some cases). To a certain extent, the answer to your question is yes. Nevertheless, the present attempt to form a government involves negotiations between a somewhat right-wing separatist party in one part of the country (got almost 30% of the votes in that part) and a somewhat left-wing socialist (yes they call themselves socialists. It's not an insult in Europe) party. The negotiations have been going on for many months, and many colourful analogies have been used (yesterday I heard the separatists compared to Hannibal, and the socialists to the Romans), but I have yet to hear either of them accuse the other of ideological blindness.

It sounds like people within your country are pretty ideologically homogeneous.

Perhaps the ideology here is closer to mono-modal than the ideology in the USA. But is this ideological inhomogeneity in the USA a cause or a consequence of the political system? Politicians in a 2-party system have an incentive to polarize : it ensures they get a large amount of voters for their party, and then they just have to focus on the small amount of "swing voters" remaining in the center.

Your homogeneity leads me to expect that your country is relatively small.

True. I'm sure the Netherlands have a similar system. I don't know what the largest country with a true many-party system is.

Does the "ideological blindness" explanation sometimes get invoked when talking about why people in other countries chose those policies?

Yes.

Comment author: Vaniver 18 January 2011 07:30:10AM 1 point [-]

True. I'm sure the Netherlands have a similar system. I don't know what the largest country with a true many-party system is.

Doesn't India have a many-party system? And since they're the largest democracy, I think we're done :P

Comment author: blogospheroid 20 January 2011 11:16:46AM *  0 points [-]

This is true. Last 5 governments have been coalition governments.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 18 January 2011 01:56:02PM 0 points [-]

But is this ideological inhomogeneity in the USA a cause or a consequence of the political system?

It's a good question, and the polarizing effect of political parties certainly does work the way you describe.

That said, I do think the rural/urban divide in the US is a real split in terms of the kinds of public services and private contributions different communities value and expect, and the political parties have exacerbated that rather than created it.

Regardless, I agree with your main point about the polarizing effects of bicamerality.

Comment author: wedrifid 18 January 2011 12:47:38AM 0 points [-]

free-market ideology of the United States.

Some people in this country are more inclined to criticize certain failures to implement the free-market ideology.

Comment author: wedrifid 16 January 2011 11:23:56AM 3 points [-]

Thanks for pointing out another perspective, there could be something to it. Which country are you from, if you don't mind me asking?

(Note that I think politics is always a mind killer, however I usually think of the problem more in terms of social politics and moral wrangling in general than governmental politics specifically.)

Comment author: Plasmon 18 January 2011 06:46:05AM 1 point [-]

Which country are you from, if you don't mind me asking?

Belgium

Comment author: Jack 28 January 2011 06:37:12PM *  1 point [-]

This is an interesting theory and the two-party system may exacerbate the problem. Great Britain, however, has essentially a two party system (Clegg's relatively new, barely relevant, ideologically indistinct party doesn't really count) and they seem to have about the same level of rationality in their politics as most of multi-party Europe. As others suggested, I suspect the difference has much more to do with the United States cultural, economic and racial diversity than anything else. America is a single tribe to a far lesser extent than other countries- even our white majority, which is smaller than it is in most of Europe consists of four genetically and culturally distinct traditions (and that isn't including Hispanic). This kind of diversity means that we have less in common to start from and have resolved fewer basic issues. We've never gotten around to European style social welfare for much the same reason- that kind of altruism isn't supported for those outside of the tribe. We're also large enough and wealthy enough to support more fractured news media environment- which lets people insulate themselves from opposing view points.

This does suggest that discussion of politics could be more successful on Less Wrong (given how much we all have in common) but having to work over the internet involves other difficulties.

I would be interested to see, however, whether the differing political climates influence the way people talk about politics. We could select some posters from Northern Europe and some posters from America. Have them discuss a series of emotional and controversial political issues. Have another group evaluate their comments (with the anti-kibitzer on) and grade them by degree of motivated cognition and mind-killing rhetoric. See if the Europeans do better.

Comment author: ChristianKl 28 January 2011 03:46:18PM -1 points [-]

The US is essentially a zero party system. Passing laws in the senate requires 2/3 of the votes with usually means that politicians from both parties have to support the legislation.

US politicians have no problem with having discussions in private. They all believe in doing realpolitik. It's their public rhetoric that differs.

Comment author: jimrandomh 28 January 2011 05:38:54PM 3 points [-]

The US is essentially a zero party system. Passing laws in the senate requires 2/3 of the votes with usually means that politicians from both parties have to support the legislation.

Not true; laws can pass with as few as 1/2 of the votes (51). However, this is increased to 60 if the opposing side chooses to filibuster (which non-selectively blocks all legislation), and it's increased to 2/3 if the President chooses to veto it. Use of the filibuster was rare before Obama came into office, at which point the Republican party adopted a policy of using it constantly.

Comment author: ChristianKl 02 February 2011 10:58:33PM 0 points [-]

Okay 60 isn't 2/3 but it's still the votes that you need to prevent a filibuster.

To prevent the opposing site from filibustering you need to be able to speak with them.