Nornagest comments on Rational Repentance - Less Wrong

36 Post author: Mass_Driver 14 January 2011 09:37AM

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Comment author: Perplexed 28 January 2011 07:02:12PM *  1 point [-]

Take any well-divided political issue, and you'll find people on both sides building up detailed stories that show what it is exactly that ought to convince any reasonable person, but fails to convince their opponents due to their ideological bias. Such stories are almost always wrong. Typically they do one or several of:
(i) exaggerate the evidence or misrepresent its degree of uncertainty;
(ii) ignore conflicting evidence to the other direction;
(iii) tacitly assume a host of underlying convictions that are only obvious to your side;
(iv) ignore any number of ways the other side could find to explain your evidence without changing their beliefs, not all of them contrived.

A good analysis of what it is that makes politics (or at least American politics) a mind killer. In fact, worse than a mind killer. The habit of convincing yourself that those who disagree with you are subrational (and intellectually dishonest to boot) is the community killer - it is the first step in a rationalization of disenfranchisement.

Are there other subjects besides politics which lead to the same dehumanization of the people who disagree? I think so. One sees it frequently in theological disputes, pretty often in ethical disputes, and occasionally when discussing interactions between the sexes. But very rarely in discussions of the arts, music, spectator sports teams, grammar, and even nutritional practices - even though tribalism is common enough in these areas, no one tries to paint their opponents as either fools or knaves. Why the difference - is it just because these topics are less important than politics?

According to Aumann, we should be able to agree to disagree only if one of the following is the case:

  • We have different priors (or different fundamental values)
  • One of us is irrational
  • We don't trust each other to report facts and beliefs truthfully
  • We just don't talk enough.

So, if Aumann is to be believed, in those cases where we do talk enough, and in which we claim to share priors and fundamental values, disagreement is likely to turn nasty.

ETA: HT to Plasmon for pointing out the counter-intuitive fact that disagreement may be less nasty when divergence of fundamental values is acknowledged.

Comment author: Nornagest 28 January 2011 08:15:41PM 0 points [-]

Why the difference - is it just because these topics are less important than politics?

That's a really interesting question.

The Aumann analysis works well for politics. It works well for some theological questions, too: it's a handy explanation for why schismatic branches of a religion often become mutually antagonistic, for example. It isn't quite a complete description of antagonism when conformity with dogma is a fundamental value, but it's easy to augment Aumann with that.

When it comes to cultural disagreements, though -- arts, music, sports teams -- there's a tacit understanding that people's priors are different. Appreciating that sort of thing isn't just about the immediate experience; it can vary depending on who you're trying to impress, and also on immutable products of upbringing and convenience. And people accept this. No one expects a resident of Oregon to be a Green Bay Packers fan, unless the Packers have been having a particularly good year -- and even that comes with a status penalty associated with the expectation of future defection.