Wow that was fast. I was writing an edit, after looking up the wiki, when I refreshed and it looked almost exactly like your first paragraph. Yes, in absolute probability terms theism must be more probable than jehovah. Thus, the conjunction fallacy.

At first glance the terminology 'locate the hypothesis' is rather non-intuitive. I'm going to put some consideration, and I don't think this is the appropriate place anyway, before commenting further on that.