jacob_cannell comments on Theists are wrong; is theism? - Less Wrong
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If say in 2080 we have created a number of high-fidelity historical recreations of 2010 with billions of sentient virtual humans who which is nearly indistinguishable (from their perspective) to our original 2010, then much of the uncertainty in the argument is eliminated.
(some uncertainty always remains, of course)
The other distinct possibility is that our simulation reaches some endpoint and possible re-integration, at which point it would be obvious.