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Will_Sawin comments on Theists are wrong; is theism? - Less Wrong
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and two highly plausible answers to the questions of cause and consequence are "because of certain features of the universe" "that are preserved with high probability by replication"
Compare to
"Well there's this 'sun' thing, a giant glowing ball apparently tracing a circular path that, for about half its arc, is obstructed by a large object, creating a sequence of distinct periods in which this sun is visible, one of which will be called Tuesday, ..."
You seem to have introduced new assumptions.
My assumptions have significant probability a priori.