pjeby comments on Accuracy Versus Winning - Less Wrong

12 Post author: John_Maxwell_IV 02 April 2009 04:47AM

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Comment author: pjeby 02 April 2009 02:22:56PM 4 points [-]

That the human brain is wired in such a way that self-deception gives us an advantage in some situations may tip the balance a little bit, but it doesn't change the fact that luck only favors us a small fraction of the time, by definition.

On the contrary: "luck" is a function of confidence in two ways. First, people volunteer more information and assistance to those who are confident about a goal. And second, the confident are more likely to notice useful events and information relative to their goals.

Those two things are why people think the "law of attraction" has some sort of mystical power. It just means they're confident and looking for their luck.