= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
John_Maxwell_IV comments on Accuracy Versus Winning - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (72)
I'm not aware of studies showing that those in the upper 10% overestimate their abilities. Anyone trying to increase their rationality is probably in the upper 10% already.
My recollection is that at least one study showed some regression to the mean in confidence -- highly-skilled people tended to underestimate themselves.
Upper 10% of what? They might be in the upper 10% of truthseeking, but not the upper 10% of any number of other fields--which confidence could prove useful in.
Good point, if we're talking about confidence in abilities in general, and not just in rationality.