this assumes Boltzmann brains that have their beliefs about reality around them in some way correlated with reality, something which does not necessarily have such a high probability
Certainly the vast majority of Boltzmann brains don't become gods, in the same way that the vast majority of virtual particles don't form brains. But it only takes one, ever.
However, it occurs to me that I haven't actually done the math, and the improbability of an AGI forming out of the ether may well exceed the space-and-time volume of the universe from Big Bang to heat death.
the vast majority of Boltzmann brains will arise after what we would normally call the heat death of the universe. They won't in general have the resources to control their future light-cone because it won't have enough usable energy.
This sounds like a plausible argument for heat death as a hard deadline on the birth of a Boltzmann god. But once one exists, any others that arise in its future light cone are rendered irrelevant.
This sounds like a plausible argument for heat death as a hard deadline on the birth of a Boltzmann god. But once one exists, any others that arise in its future light cone are rendered irrelevant.
That seems correct. So the details come down to precisely how many Boltzmann brains one expects to arise, what sort of goals they'll have, and how much resources they'll have. This seems very tough to estimate.
If someone gets cremated or buried long enough for eir brain to fully decompose into dirt, it becomes extremely difficult to revive em. Nothing short of a vastly superhuman intelligence would have a chance of doing it. I suspect that it would be possible for a superintelligence to do it, but unless there's a more efficient way to do it, it would require recomputing the Earth's history from the time the AGI is activated back to the death of the last person it intends to save. Not only does this require immense computational resources that could be used to the benefit of people who are still alive, it also requires simulating people experiencing pain (backwards). On the other hand, this saves people's lives. Does anyone have any compelling arguments on why an FAI would or would not recreate me if I die, decompose, and then the singularity occurs a long time after my death?
Why do I want to know? Well, aside from the question being interesting in its own right, it is an important factor in deciding whether or not cryonics is worth-while.