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kurige comments on Individual Rationality Is a Matter of Life and Death - Less Wrong
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Comments (43)
The term "bayesian black-belt" has been thrown around a number of times on OB and LW... this, in my mind, seems misleading. As far as I can tell there are two ways in which bayesian reasoning can be applied directly: introspection and academia. Within those domains, sure, the metaphor makes sense... in meatspace life-and-death situations? Not so much.
"Being rational" doesn't develop your quick-twitch muscle fibers or give you a sixth sense.
Perhaps, where you live, you are never in danger of being physically accosted. If so, you are in the minority. Rationality may help you avoid such situations, but never with a 100% success rate. When you do find yourself in such a situation, you may find yourself wishing you'd studied up on a little Tae Kwon Do.
Can you give an example of how being "more rational" could have avoided the accidents?
Of course, properly applying rational techniques will bleed over into all areas of your life. Having a more accurate map of the territory means that you will make better decisions. The vast majority of these decisions, however, can be written off as common sense. Just because I drink coffee when I drive at night to stay alert doesn't make me a master of the "martial art of rationality".
By rationality I am not referring to bayesian reasoning. I simply mean making correct decisions even when (especially when) one's hardwired instincts give the wrong answer.
In the first case, I should not have driven. In the second case, I should have told the driver to be more careful. In both cases, I made serious mistakes in life-or-death situations. I call that irrational, and I seek to not replicate such mistakes in the future.
You are welcome to call it "common sense" if you prefer. "Common sense" is rather a misnomer, in my opinion, considering how uncommon a quality it is. But I really don't care what it is called. I simply mean, making better decisions, screwing up less, being less of a monkey and more of a human. I find it baffling that people don't find it blindingly obvious that this is one of the most important skills to develop in life.
I think a big chunk of the explanation is that many people wouldn't see it obviously as a 'skill'.