jacob_cannell comments on Counterfactual Calculation and Observational Knowledge - Less Wrong

11 Post author: Vladimir_Nesov 31 January 2011 04:28PM

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Comment author: jacob_cannell 01 February 2011 12:55:32AM 0 points [-]

Consider the counterfactual where the calculator displayed "odd" instead of "even", after you've just typed in the formula Q.

This consists of just reapplying the algorithm or re-reading the previous paragraph with "even" replaced with "odd", so the answer should be 99% odd.

This is based on my understanding of counterfactual as considering what you would do in some hypothetical alternate branch 'what-if'.

Comment author: b1shop 01 February 2011 01:09:03AM 1 point [-]

This is how I interpreted it as well. I'm assuming something else is going on with the "updateless" part, but I don't know what it is.

Comment author: wedrifid 01 February 2011 06:29:05AM 0 points [-]

This is how I interpreted it as well. I'm assuming something else is going on with the "updateless" part, but I don't know what it is.

I took that as somewhat of a red herring. No 'updateless' reasoning seems to be required - just careful thinking.

Comment author: wedrifid 01 February 2011 06:27:40AM 0 points [-]

This is based on my understanding of counterfactual as considering what you would do in some hypothetical alternate branch 'what-if'.

Vladmir explicitly ruled out caring what your counterfactual self would do:

(the actions of your counterfactual self who takes the test in the counterfactual are ignored).

Comment author: jacob_cannell 01 February 2011 06:56:20AM 0 points [-]

The fact that he put that in quotes:

You are to determine what is to be written (by Omega) on the test sheet in that counterfactual (the actions of your counterfactual self who takes the test in the counterfactual are ignored)

as if it should relate to the Omega clause, made me ignore. (couldn't figure out what it could apply to). So perhaps I couldn't parse Vlad.

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