b1shop comments on Counterfactual Calculation and Observational Knowledge - Less Wrong

11 Post author: Vladimir_Nesov 31 January 2011 04:28PM

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Comment author: jacob_cannell 01 February 2011 12:55:32AM 0 points [-]

Consider the counterfactual where the calculator displayed "odd" instead of "even", after you've just typed in the formula Q.

This consists of just reapplying the algorithm or re-reading the previous paragraph with "even" replaced with "odd", so the answer should be 99% odd.

This is based on my understanding of counterfactual as considering what you would do in some hypothetical alternate branch 'what-if'.

Comment author: b1shop 01 February 2011 01:09:03AM 1 point [-]

This is how I interpreted it as well. I'm assuming something else is going on with the "updateless" part, but I don't know what it is.

Comment author: wedrifid 01 February 2011 06:29:05AM 0 points [-]

This is how I interpreted it as well. I'm assuming something else is going on with the "updateless" part, but I don't know what it is.

I took that as somewhat of a red herring. No 'updateless' reasoning seems to be required - just careful thinking.