Vladimir_Nesov comments on Counterfactual Calculation and Observational Knowledge - Less Wrong

11 Post author: Vladimir_Nesov 31 January 2011 04:28PM

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Comment author: shokwave 31 January 2011 05:25:48PM *  8 points [-]

We are in the world where the calculator displays even, and we are 99% sure it is the world where the calculator has not made an error. This is Even World, Right Calculator. Counterfactual worlds:

  • Even World, Wrong Calculator (1% of Even Worlds)
  • Odd World, Right Calculator (99% of Odd Worlds)
  • Odd World, Wrong Calculator (1% of Odd Worlds)

All Omega told us was that the counterfactual world we are deciding for, the calculator shows Odd. We can therefore eliminate Odd World, Wrong Calculator. Answering the question is, in essence, deciding which world we think we're looking at.

So, in the counterfactual world, we're either looking at Even World, Wrong Calculator or Odd World, Right Calculator. We have an equal prior for the world being Odd or Even - or, we think the number of Odd Worlds is equal to the number of Even Worlds. We know the ratio of Wrong Calculator worlds to Right Calculator worlds (1:99). This is, therefore, 99% evidence for Odd World. The correct decision for the counterfactual you in that world is to decide Odd World. The correct decision for you?

Ignoring Bostrom's book on how to deal with observer selection effects (did Omega go looking for a Wrong Calculator world and report it? Did Omega go looking for an Odd World to report to you? Did Omega pick at random from all possible worlds? Did Omega roll a three-sided die to determine which counterfactual world to report?), I believe the correct decision is to answer Odd World for the counterfactual world, with 99% certainty if you are allowed to specify as such.

I reason that by virtue of it being a counterfactual world, it is contingent on my not having the observation of my factual world; factual world observations are screened off by the word "counterfactual".

The other possibility (which I tentatively think is wrong) is that our 99% confidence of Even World (from our factual world) comes up against our 99% confidence of Odd World (from our counterfactual) and they cancel out, bringing you back to your prior. So you should flip a coin to decide even or odd. I think this is wrong because 1) I think you could reason from 50% in the countefactual world to 50% in the factual world, which is wrong, and 2) this setup is identical to punching in the formula, pressing the button and observing "even", then pressing the button again and observing "odd". I don't think you can treat counterfactual worlds as additional observations in this manner.

edit: It occurs to me that with Omega telling you about the counterfactual world, you are receiving a second observation. For this understanding, you would specify Even World with 99% confidence in the factual world and either Even or Odd World depending on how the coin landed for the counterfactual world.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 01 February 2011 02:41:26PM *  0 points [-]

The correct decision for the counterfactual you in that world is to decide Odd World.

I believe the above is correct updateless analysis of the thought experiment. (Which is a natural step to take in considering it, but not the point of the post, see its last paragraph.)

Comment author: shokwave 01 February 2011 03:06:27PM 0 points [-]

Exactly. The correct decision for factual you may be different to the correct decision for counterfactual you.