Barring a major collapse of human civilization (due to nuclear war, asteroid impact, etc.), many experts expect the intelligence explosion Singularity to occur within 50-200 years.
That fact means that many philosophical problems, about which philosophers have argued for millennia, are suddenly very urgent.
Those concerned with the fate of the galaxy must say to the philosophers: "Too slow! Stop screwing around with transcendental ethics and qualitative epistemologies! Start thinking with the precision of an AI researcher and solve these problems!"
If a near-future AI will determine the fate of the galaxy, we need to figure out what values we ought to give it. Should it ensure animal welfare? Is growing the human population a good thing?
But those are questions of applied ethics. More fundamental are the questions about which normative ethics to give the AI: How would the AI decide if animal welfare or large human populations were good? What rulebook should it use to answer novel moral questions that arise in the future?
But even more fundamental are the questions of meta-ethics. What do moral terms mean? Do moral facts exist? What justifies one normative rulebook over the other?
The answers to these meta-ethical questions will determine the answers to the questions of normative ethics, which, if we are successful in planning the intelligence explosion, will determine the fate of the galaxy.
Eliezer Yudkowsky has put forward one meta-ethical theory, which informs his plan for Friendly AI: Coherent Extrapolated Volition. But what if that meta-ethical theory is wrong? The galaxy is at stake.
Princeton philosopher Richard Chappell worries about how Eliezer's meta-ethical theory depends on rigid designation, which in this context may amount to something like a semantic "trick." Previously and independently, an Oxford philosopher expressed the same worry to me in private.
Eliezer's theory also employs something like the method of reflective equilibrium, about which there are many grave concerns from Eliezer's fellow naturalists, including Richard Brandt, Richard Hare, Robert Cummins, Stephen Stich, and others.
My point is not to beat up on Eliezer's meta-ethical views. I don't even know if they're wrong. Eliezer is wickedly smart. He is highly trained in the skills of overcoming biases and properly proportioning beliefs to the evidence. He thinks with the precision of an AI researcher. In my opinion, that gives him large advantages over most philosophers. When Eliezer states and defends a particular view, I take that as significant Bayesian evidence for reforming my beliefs.
Rather, my point is that we need lots of smart people working on these meta-ethical questions. We need to solve these problems, and quickly. The universe will not wait for the pace of traditional philosophy to catch up.
I don't yet have much of an opinion on what the best way to do it is, I'm just saying it needs doing. We need more brains on the problem. Eliezer's meta-ethics is, I think, far from obviously correct. Moving toward normative ethics, CEV is also not obviously the correct solution for Friendly AI, though it is a good research proposal. The fate of the galaxy cannot rest on Eliezer's moral philosophy alone.
We need critically-minded people to say, "I don't think that's right, and here are four arguments why." And then Eliezer can argue back, or change his position. And then the others can argue back, or change their positions. This is standard procedure for solving difficult problems, but as of yet I haven't seen much published dialectic like this in trying to figure out the normative foundations for the Friendly AI project.
Let me give you an explicit example. CEV takes extrapolated human values as the source of an AI's eventually-constructed utility function. Is that the right way to go about things, or should we instead program an AI to figure out all the reasons for action that exist and account for them in its utility function, whether or not they happen to be reasons for action arising from the brains of a particular species of primate on planet Earth? What if there are 5 other intelligent species in the galaxy who interests will not at all be served when our Friendly AI takes over the galaxy? Is that really the right thing to do? How would we go about answering questions like that?
...this sentence makes me think that we really aren't on the same page at all with respect to naturalistic metaethics. What is a reason for action? How would a computer program enumerate them all?