Ferriss strikes me as one of those highly intelligent, highly capable, and highly energetic people who overestimate their understanding of how they themselves became so successful.
I tried the method Ferriss describes in his book. One of the things he really stresses is testing your idea before you invest. When I did this, I found out that none of my business ideas were viable, although some were close. The total cost to me was tiny, and I learned something valuable: my business ideas weren't good enough. Everything Ferriss actually said was valid (in my experience) but the problem is in the thousand little judgements you have to make. Most of us probably don't have TF's competence, and that really isn't something you can learn in a short book.
I don`t mean to invade your privacy, but would you like to share your ideas so that people can check whether they feel closer to your idea-kind or to his idea-kinds?
Tim Ferriss has been systematically quoted on Less Wrong.
How to make money to donate utilons and show you care is a persistent topic on Less Wrong.
No one here seems to either have tried, or accessed the feasibility of Tim Ferrissing life (for instance accessing by checking for people who tried without the obvious survivor bias displayed in Ferriss`s own website)
A probability 30% of earning $12.000 per month working for 10 hours per week after a build-up time of 4 months working 10 hours a day to get it started (having fun while figuring out how does capitalism work anyway) seems like a fair bet.
My prior for the above paragraph feasibility is about 15%.
Should my posterior be above the 30% threshold?
Data anyone?
Different prior anyone?
Lone bystander bias,everyone?